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Deductions and Assumptions
Modals of deduction are modal verbs used to express assumptions or conclusions about something in the present, past, or future. They help convey different levels of certainty in our guesses. 

Degree of certainty

Present Tense

Past Tense

High certainty (≈ 100%)

must + Verb

He must be at work now.

must + have + Ved/3

She must have left early.

High certainty that something is impossible (≈ 100%)

can't / cannot + Verb

She can't be at home.

can't have / couldn't + have + Ved/3

He can't have forgotten my birthday.

Medium certainty (≈ 50-70%)

may / might / could + Verb

They might be on their way.

may have / might have / could + have + Ved/3

He might have missed the train.

How to deduct about the present, past and future

In the present tense, we use “must”, “can't”, “may”, “might”, “could” followed by the bare infinitive (without “to”). They help us make assumptions about the current situation.

Although “might” and “could” are past forms, they are used to make assumptions about the present or future. The past forms make our statements more hypothetical and polite.

✓ Must — high certainty:

  • He must be at work now.
  • She must know the answer.
  • They must be tired after such a long journey.

✓ Can't / Cannot — high certainty that something is impossible:

  • She can't be at home.
  • He can't be the thief.
  • This story can't be true.

✓ Might / May / Could — possibility, but not certainty:

  • He might be sleeping.
  • She may be busy right now.
  • They could be on their way.

Modal verbs “must”, “can't”, “might”, “may”, and “could” can also be used to make assumptions about the future. In this case, they are typically followed by the bare infinitive (the base form of the verb) or with the construction “be going to”.

Modal verb + bare Infinitive (verb without “to”)

Modal verb + be going to + bare Infinitive (verb without “to”)

She must arrive on time if she leaves now.

He must be going to win the competition.

 

✓ Must — strong certainty about the future:

  • He must arrive on time if he leaves early.
  • She must pass the exam with all that preparation.

✓ Can't — strong certainty that something is impossible in the future:

  • He can't win the race; he's not fast enough.
  • They can't be here by 5 p.m.; the journey takes longer.

✓ Might / May / Could — possibility in the future, but without certainty:

  • She might come to the party later.
  • It may rain tomorrow, so take an umbrella.
  • They could be late if there’s traffic.

Past modals of deduction

In the past, we use “must have”, “can't have”, “might have”, “may have”, “could have” + Past Participle (Ved/3) to make assumptions or express thoughts about events that happened in the past.

These constructions help us draw conclusions based on available facts or evidence, but they also reflect a certain level of uncertainty. Thus, past modals of deduction allow us to make assumptions about past situations in a grammatically correct and precise way.

Must have — strong certainty about the past:

  • She must have left early.
  • They must have forgotten about the meeting.

✓ Can't have / Couldn't have — strong certainty that something did not happen:

  • He can't have forgotten my birthday.
  • She couldn't have seen him yesterday.

✓ Might have / May have / Could have — assumption about possible situations in the past:

  • They might have missed the train.
  • He may have left his phone at home.

✓ Could have also sometimes conveys an unrealized possibility:

  • I could have gone to the party, but I stayed home.

Continuous aspect 

We can also make assumptions about actions happening at the moment or actions that were ongoing in the past. Using modal verbs in the continuous aspect allows us to express a deeper level of speculation, emphasizing the ongoing nature of the activity. This can add nuance and make assumptions more precise and detailed.

In the present tense, we use the following constructions:

  • must be + V-ing; 
  • can’t be + V-ing;
  • might be + V-ing. 

She must be working late. (high certainty that an action is ongoing)

Past modals of deduction have the following formulas:

  • must have been + V-ing;
  • can’t have been + V-ing;
  • might have been + V-ing.

He might have been sleeping when you called. (assumption about an action that was happening at a specific moment in the past)


Conditionals

Passive Voice



 

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